On the theory that it’s never too early to consider a futures bet, I took a glance at the odds to win the Masters in April. And these are some of the conclusions that reached out to me, for better or whatever.
Jordan Spieth is a co-favorite, at 9-1, which makes sense since he finished second in 2014, won it in 2015, was second again in 2016 and got third, two strokes behind Patrick Reed following a big-time final-round rally, last year. I know he wasn’t playing his best golf at the end of last season, but history is history. And it’s usually worth even more at a place like Augusta National.
That having been said, the last three winners were Danny Willett, Sergio Garcia and Reed, none of whom were among the bettor favorites. Or even close. It happens.
The other co-fave for the next tradition unlike any other is as you might suspect none other than Tiger Woods, who finally won a tournament for the first time since 2013. And while Tiger has won four green jackets, he got the last one in 2005. So it’s been awhile. But he’s going to get bet, just because. Like the Yankees and Patriots. That’s the way this stuff works. Personally, I wouldn’t go there -- and I’m a Tiger guy. Still, I’m not sure he’s going to win a major this year, or maybe ever again. And the PGA Championship in May is at Bethpage Black, where he won a U.S. Open in 2002. The following month’s U.S. Open is at Pebble Beach, where he won our national championship in 2000 by what seemed like 100 shots.
The British Open is at Royal Portrush, in Northern Ireland, which hasn’t hosted since 1951. So nobody has a track record there, although Tiger did say last July -- after tying for sixth at Carnoustie -- that the oldest major might represent his best chance to get No. 15. He has three claret jugs.
But back to Augusta . . .
Spieth is the obvious first look, and 9-1 ain’t shabby. If he’s back to being Spieth-like. That’s why it’s called a futures bet.
But if you’re looking for a bigger payout, you might want to try Justin Rose at 15-1. He was as good as anyone last year, and was second in 2015 and ’17. That’s something. Brooks Keopka (12-1) has won two of the last three majors. His highest finish at Augusta is 11th, two years ago. He didn’t play in 2018 due to an injury.
Rory McIlory (12-1) needs to win this major for the career grand slam, but his last major win was in 2014. Ricky Fowler (18-1) might be the best golfer still looking for a major, but until he does win one I’m staying away. Francesco Molinari (33-1) was the best golfer on the planet last summer, when he won the British. But the bloke who might be worth a shot is the guy he teamed up with so brilliantly at the Ryder Cup, Tommy Fleetwood (also 33-1). He had a coming-out kind of season, and looks like he’s primed to take the next step. This far out, it’s mostly an educated guess. But 33-1 sounds like a risk worth taking.
So Spieth, Rose and Fleetwood would be the three names I’d be looking at. Which probably means that someone like Brandt Snedeker (100-1) is a lock. Of course by the time they tee it up Tiger might have already won and could be down to even money.
When you’re pulling the trigger, it’s all about timing.