The Rockies have allowed seven or more runs in six of their nine home games this season. The three opponents who failed to reach those numbers were the Phillies, the Phillies and the Phillies . . . all this past weekend, when they sandwiched a 1, a 2 and a 3 around the Saturday night snowman.
Yet, with all that, the Phillies are still second in the National League in runs scored (116, 20 behind the Dodgers). So, we know they can score.
We also know they can score on Steven Matz, the Mets’ Monday night starter. He was the unfortunate fellow whom absorbed the brunt of the Phils’ massive 10-run first inning last Tuesday (8 runs, 6 earned, without recording an out).
Jake Arrieta, whom we will consider the Phillies’ ace until Aaron Nola gets his act straightened out, has been spot on, so we are going to pass on the Game Total Over (8.5) and stick with just the Phillies Over (4.5).
But we will also take a shot on a parlay of Phillies Scoring First (they are itching to take their Mile High woes out on somebody) and Winning (which Arrieta will see to).
The Mets are coming back off a 4-6 road trip in which they allowed double-digit runs three times. They have also allowed 12, 14 and six in their last three at CitiField. So they have allowed 10+ runs in five of their last 13 games.
Pick: Phillies Over 4.5 (+117)
Pick: Phillies Score First and Win (+163)